Kian

Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in September 2026? My horary judgment is NO. I expect the FOMC to hold the federal funds target range unchanged, with a rate cut as the secondary possibility. A hike is the least likely outcome in the chart.

This is Horary Case File #002, a prospective judgment recorded before the Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026 decision is known. The question became clear to me on August 30, 2026 at 4:12 PM PDT in Henderson, Nevada.

My primary prediction is fixed: the Federal Reserve will not raise the target range for the federal funds rate at its September 15–16, 2026 meeting.

My more specific three-way forecast is:

1. HOLD — favored
2. CUT — secondary possibility
3. HIKE — least likely

Confidence: Moderate.

After the FOMC announces its decision, I will return to this same Case File, record the verified outcome, and add a technical postmortem. The original prediction and reasoning will remain preserved.

Horary Case File #002 — Open

This Case File is an astrological experiment and educational record. It is not financial or investment advice.

The Federal Reserve Question Being Tested

The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet on September 15–16, 2026. The monetary-policy decision is scheduled for 2:00 PM Eastern Time on September 16, followed by the Federal Reserve Chair's press conference at 2:30 PM.

At its previous meeting on July 29, the FOMC maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% by a 9–3 vote.

The three dissenting members preferred to raise the target range by 25 basis points. That makes the possibility of a September hike a genuine policy question rather than a purely hypothetical one.

The official schedule and current policy information can be verified through the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting calendar and its July 29, 2026 monetary-policy statement.

For purposes of this Case File, I am deliberately excluding current futures pricing, prediction markets, economist forecasts, and consensus probabilities from the astrological judgment. The purpose is to test what the horary chart itself says before the outcome is known.

The exact proposition is:

Will the FOMC raise the target range for the federal funds rate at the conclusion of its September 15–16, 2026 meeting?

The primary scoring rule is fixed:

• Target range higher after the meeting = primary prediction INCORRECT.
• Target range unchanged or lower = primary prediction CORRECT.

I will also score the more specific three-way forecast separately. Because HOLD is my favored outcome, a cut would make the broader NO-HIKE prediction correct but the more specific HOLD forecast incorrect.

The Horary Chart

Horary chart for the question as it became clear on August 30, 2026 at 4:12 PM PDT in Henderson, Nevada, using Regiomontanus houses. This judgment was recorded before the September 16 FOMC decision was known.

The chart has approximately 13°14 Capricorn rising and 4°26 Scorpio on the Midheaven.

The traditional planetary positions used in the judgment are:

• Sun: 7°35 Virgo
• Moon: 11°25 Aries
• Mercury: 10°44 Virgo
• Venus: 22°20 Libra
• Mars: 12°44 Cancer
• Jupiter: 13°28 Leo
• Saturn: 13°44 Aries, retrograde

I judge the chart primarily through traditional horary technique: house rulership, essential and accidental dignity, planetary motion, reception, applying and separating aspects, translation of light, the Moon's sequence, and the end of the matter.

One methodological extension is necessary. A modern central-bank policy rate has no direct medieval equivalent, so I use later mundane astrology to determine the house of the interest-rate mechanism. I make that distinction explicit because it is the greatest source of uncertainty in this Case File.

Is the Chart Fit for Judgment?

I consider the chart fit for judgment.

The Ascendant is neither extremely early nor late. The Moon is not void of course, is not in the Via Combusta, and is not near the end of its sign. Saturn is not in the 7th house, and the ruler of the Ascendant is not combust.

There is also agreement between the planetary hour and the Ascendant ruler under William Lilly's traditional radicality consideration.

The question falls during a Mercury planetary hour. Saturn rules the Capricorn Ascendant, and Lilly classifies both Mercury and Saturn as cold and dry in nature.

I therefore find sufficient agreement to proceed with the judgment.

Who Represents the Federal Reserve?

I assign the Federal Reserve and the FOMC to the 10th house.

In traditional mundane astrology, the 10th signifies rulers, governors, magistrates, chief officers, and those exercising public authority. The FOMC is functioning here as a national policy-making authority.

Scorpio is on the Midheaven.

Mars = the Federal Reserve / FOMC.

Mars is at 12°44 Cancer.

Although the house calculation places Mars in the 6th, it lies only about half a degree from the Descendant. Following the traditional practice of assigning a planet very near the following cusp to that house, I treat Mars as effectively angular in the 7th.

Mars therefore has considerable accidental power. It is angular, direct, and moving faster than average.

Its essential condition is much less comfortable.

Mars is in its fall in Cancer. Under Lilly's dignity table, however, Mars also rules the watery triplicity both day and night, so it is not entirely without essential dignity.

The synthesis is:

The Federal Reserve has substantial power to act, but it is acting from a pressured, uncomfortable, or compromised condition.

That describes an active institution. It does not by itself tell us whether the action is a hike, hold, or cut.

The Moon Immediately Applies to the Fed

The Moon at 11°25 Aries immediately applies by square to Mars at 12°44 Cancer.

A square introduces difficulty or strain, but the reception is unusually strong:

• The Moon is in Aries, Mars's domicile.
• Mars is in Cancer, the Moon's domicile.

The Moon and Mars therefore have mutual reception by domicile.

Traditional horary allows a difficult application to produce action when supported by strong reception.

I therefore read this contact as strong testimony that the matter comes directly and forcefully to the Federal Reserve and requires a decision.

Importantly, this establishes engagement. It does not establish a rate increase.

What Represents the Federal Funds Rate?

This is the most important methodological uncertainty in the Case File.

Medieval horary texts do not contain a federal funds rate or a direct equivalent to a modern central-bank target range.

Traditional mundane astrology associates the 2nd house broadly with national wealth, money, banks, and financial institutions.

Later mundane doctrine becomes more specific. Nicholas deVore's Encyclopedia of Astrology includes interest rates among the mundane significations of the 8th house.

For this modern national monetary-policy question, I therefore use:

• 10th house / Mars: Federal Reserve / FOMC
• 8th house / Sun: federal funds rate / interest-rate mechanism
• 2nd house / Saturn: broader financial and monetary conditions

This is not presented as a medieval Lilly rule. It is a later mundane extension applied to a modern policy instrument.

That distinction matters. If the Case File fails, this house assignment will be one of the first methodological choices to re-examine.

The Rate Is Represented by the Sun

Leo is on the 8th-house cusp.

Sun = the federal funds rate / interest-rate mechanism.

The Sun is at 7°35 Virgo in the 8th house.

Its condition is mixed. The Sun has only minor essential dignity by face in early Virgo and is succedent rather than angular.

It is not a picture of an overwhelmingly fortified rate significator.

More importantly, the Sun applies by sextile to Mars, the Federal Reserve.

The rate significator and the Fed significator therefore come directly together. Neither changes sign, stations, nor refrains before perfection.

The aspect perfects around September 14, immediately before the September 15–16 FOMC meeting.

Because the meeting date was already part of the question, I do not treat that timing correspondence as independent proof. But it is notable descriptive confirmation that the chart is directly engaged with the upcoming rate decision.

The essential distinction remains:

The Fed and the rate coming together tells us that the rate is actively dealt with. It does not tell us by itself that the rate rises.

Mercury Translates the Rate to the Fed

Mercury at 10°44 Virgo has separated from conjunction with the Sun and next applies by sextile to Mars.

This creates a translation-of-light sequence:

Sun / rate → Mercury → Mars / Fed

The rate and the Federal Reserve are therefore connected twice: first through Mercury's translation and then through the Sun's own direct sextile to Mars.

Mercury is extremely strong essentially in Virgo, where it has both domicile and exaltation.

But Mercury is also only about three degrees from the Sun and is therefore combust, a serious accidental debility.

The translation exists, but the translator is impeded.

Again, this is strong testimony that the policy-rate issue is active. It is not sufficient directional testimony for a hike.

Why I Judge Against a Rate Hike

Once the chart establishes that the Federal Reserve and the rate are directly engaged, the central question becomes directional:

Does the chart show augmentation?

I do not believe it does.

The South Node Is in the Rate House

The South Node is at approximately 29°21 Leo in the 8th house.

That places the traditionally diminishing node directly inside the house being used for the interest-rate mechanism.

Traditional astrology associates the South Node, or Dragon's Tail, with diminution, depletion, weakening, or loss.

I do not use a mechanical rule such as:

“South Node in the 8th means a rate cut.”

The nodes are secondary testimony, not primary significators.

But when the literal question asks whether the quantity represented by this house will become higher, the presence of a traditional symbol of diminution is meaningful evidence against augmentation.

The Moon Is Also Decreasing in Light

The Moon is past full and decreasing in light.

A waning Moon does not automatically mean the Federal Reserve cuts rates.

But increasing and decreasing light are traditional conditions. In a question specifically asking whether something will increase, the Moon's decreasing light supplies another modest testimony against augmentation.

Taken alone, it would not decide the chart.

Taken alongside the South Node in the rate house, the two testimonies point in the same general direction:

lessening rather than increasing.

Saturn Shows a Strained Monetary Environment

Aquarius rules the radical 2nd house, so I use Saturn as a secondary significator for broader financial and monetary conditions.

Saturn is at 13°44 Aries, retrograde, in its fall, and cadent.

Saturn is therefore severely debilitated.

Mars, representing the Fed, applies to square Saturn. Saturn is in Aries, Mars's domicile, so Mars receives Saturn by domicile.

This shows a difficult and direct relationship between the Federal Reserve and strained monetary conditions.

I do not translate that mechanically into:

“Saturn means restriction, therefore the Fed raises rates.”

That would substitute planetary symbolism for actual horary judgment.

Saturn's retrogradation and fall make it especially difficult to use this configuration as evidence that restrictive conditions are becoming stronger.

The Moon's Final Sequence

Before leaving Aries, the Moon applies to:

1. Square Mars
2. Trine Jupiter
3. Conjunction Saturn
4. Opposition Venus

The sequence begins with the matter reaching Mars, the Fed, through a difficult aspect supported by powerful mutual reception.

It then moves through Jupiter and fallen, retrograde Saturn.

Finally, the Moon opposes Venus in Libra.

Venus rules the 4th house, which I use as supporting testimony for the end of the matter.

Venus is very strong essentially because it occupies its own domicile.

Yet the Moon's final application is an opposition to that strong Venus without sufficient reception to turn the opposition into an easy perfection.

I do not allow this one aspect to decide the Case File.

But it provides additional testimony against straightforward fulfillment of the literal proposition:

“The Federal Reserve raises the rate.”

Why HOLD Is More Likely Than CUT

The most defensible conclusion from the chart is NO HIKE.

Deciding between HOLD and CUT is less certain.

The chart contains genuine testimonies of diminution:

• The South Node occupies the rate house.
• The Moon is decreasing in light.
• Saturn is retrograde and fallen.
• The Sun, ruling the rate house, is not powerfully fortified.

Those testimonies keep a rate cut alive as a real secondary possibility.

The stronger argument for HOLD comes from the chart's fixed-sign structure:

• The 8th-house cusp used for the rate is fixed Leo.
• The 10th-house cusp representing the Federal Reserve is fixed Scorpio.
• The 4th-house cusp representing the conclusion is fixed Taurus.

Fixed signs traditionally favor persistence, continuation, and resistance to alteration.

At the same time, the Sun's placement in mutable Virgo and the multiple contacts between the rate and Fed significators show substantial activity surrounding the issue.

My synthesis is:

The Federal Reserve actively deals with the rate question under pressure, but the target range is more likely to remain where it is than to be raised.

The diminishing testimonies mean a cut cannot be dismissed.

But I do not find enough evidence to place CUT ahead of HOLD.

Therefore:

1. HOLD — favored.
2. CUT — secondary possibility.
3. HIKE — least likely.

What I Am Not Predicting

I do not believe the chart provides a defensible basis for predicting the exact size of a policy move.

I am therefore not claiming that horary shows:

• a 25-basis-point cut,
• a 50-basis-point cut,
• or a specific numerical size for any change.

Doing so would go beyond the testimony I can defend.

I also do not automatically equate squares with monetary tightening, Jupiter with easing, or Saturn with higher rates. Those are symbolic shortcuts rather than strict horary technique.

The chart gives me a narrower and more defensible prediction:

The federal funds target range will not be raised.

My Recorded Prediction Before the September FOMC Decision

NO. I judge that the Federal Reserve will not raise the federal funds target range at its September 15–16, 2026 meeting.

My three-way ranking is:

1. HOLD — favored
2. CUT — secondary possibility
3. HIKE — least likely

Confidence: Moderate.

The Case File will be graded in two separate ways:

This scoring distinction is deliberate. A rate cut will not later be presented as a perfect forecast simply because the broader NO-HIKE judgment was correct.

Outcome — Pending

Status: OPEN.

The FOMC decision is scheduled for September 16, 2026.

After the announcement, this same Case File will be updated with the official target range, the result of the primary NO-HIKE prediction, the result of the more specific HOLD forecast, and a technical postmortem.

The original prediction and analysis above will remain unchanged.

What Horary Case File #002 Is Testing

This Case File tests more than whether one prediction happens to be correct.

It tests whether traditional horary can be applied transparently to a modern institutional question without pretending that the federal funds rate existed in medieval astrological doctrine.

The Federal Reserve itself has a comparatively straightforward assignment through the 10th house of governing authority.

The federal funds rate is the more difficult methodological problem. My use of the radical 8th depends on later mundane astrology specifically associating that house with interest rates.

That assumption is being recorded before the result.

If the prediction succeeds, one Case File will not establish the 8th house as a universal rule for every central-bank question. If it fails, that assignment will deserve particularly close examination.

This is why the house logic, prediction, confidence level, and alternative outcome are all preserved before the September decision.

For more on how planets are assigned to the people, institutions, and subjects involved in horary questions, read what significators are in horary astrology and who represents whom.

To understand the broader process of weighing testimony in a chart, read how to read a horary chart.

About Horary Case Files

Horary Case Files document real-world questions judged through traditional horary astrology.

Whenever possible, prospective Case Files are published before the outcome is known so that the original prediction can later be compared directly with what happened.

Successful predictions, failed predictions, ambiguous results, and timing errors all belong in the archive. The purpose is not to manufacture perfect accuracy. It is to preserve the reasoning, test it against reality, and learn from the result.

You can browse the Horary Case Files here.

If you have a specific personal question and want it judged through traditional horary technique, you can book a private horary astrology reading here.